(COTRI) By the end of the month of September, 2016 had seen more than 100 million border-crossings from Mainland China take place. According to the latest statistics based on the research of my institute, the COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, 51.7 million of these went beyond Greater China (Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan), whereas 49.8 million - less than half of the total number of 101.5 million - stayed within Greater China. This represents a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, which is however split into a negative rate of -6.2% for Greater China and a still healthy 14.5% for the rest of the world.
The COTRI forecast that 2016 will be the first year to see the market share of Greater China dropping below the 50% mark will therefore most likely be validated. It can even be taken for granted that the times when Greater China absorbed more than 50% of the total border-crossings from the Mainland are over for good, provided that no serious global disturbances discourage Chinese travellers from travelling further away from the motherland.
Compared to the results for the first half of 2016, the fall of Greater China has slowed from -7% to -6.2%, but so too has the growth for the rest of the world, which has slipped from 16.6% to 14.5%.
This is the result of the numbers for the third quarter of 2016, which show a total border-crossings from China of 37.5 million (+4.4% YoY), out of which 20 million (+14.1% YoY) went further than Greater China while 17.5 million (-5.1% YoY) visited Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. With a YoY decrease in arrivals of -28%, Taiwan saw the biggest drop in the region.
As a result, the global growth rate of China's outbound tourism improved after the 2.4% and 4.3% figures recorded in the first and second quarters of the year respectively, to reach a slightly increased 4.4% in the third quarter of 2016.
Hong Kong is still suffering from political turbulence as well as competition from Seoul and Tokyo as alternative shopping destinations. The total number of Mainland arrivals of 11.3 million in the third quarter of the year is just a few thousand higher than the figure for 2013 but 1.5 million and 600,000 respectively lower than the third quarter figures for the last two years.
Taiwan's dramatic drop in arrivals is a direct result of the restriction placed by the Beijing government on the arrangement of organised travel groups as a clear signal towards the island about its displeasure with the new Taiwanese government.
South Korea once again returned to form with impressive arrival numbers in the third quarter of 2018: More than 2.5 million arrivals resulted equated to a YoY growth rate of 85%, while Japan's 16% growth and 1.9 million arrivals in the same period was still nevertheless short of the three-digit growth rates seen in 2015.
The "rest of the world" figure, positive as it is as a total number, covers quite strong changes in the composition of the preferred destinations for China's footloose affluent classes, especially in Europe.
The continent's main destinations all suffered heavy losses, with not only France and Germany, but also Spain, Switzerland and Italy reporting double-digit numbers in the red. Smaller countries like Croatia, Iceland, Poland and Norway on the other hand all enjoyed more than 20% growth in arrival numbers from China. For the UK however, the aftermath of the Brexit decision brought growing numbers of bargain-hunters from China to the British Isles in the third quarter of 2016.
The current anxiety surrounding previous terrorist attacks in some European countries did, as forecasted, not reduce the total number of outbound trips but let to the expected shift away from places considered unsafe to supposedly safer, alternative destinations. Nevertheless, Australia and New Zealand profited less than expected from these changes in Chinese customers' perceptions.
Official figures for the United States are only published up until April 2016, but COTRI sees the US among the group of global winners, with the third quarter of 2016 being the first time that the country has seen more than one million arrivals from China within a three-month period.
The surprising winner for the third quarter 2016 however is - Vietnam! Even though the disputes over the islands in the South China Sea are still unresolved, China's southerly neighbour could welcome almost 800,000 Chinese arrivals to its beaches and cities, a YoY increase of 75%.
With the last quarter of the year already half gone, the trends of the third quarter can be forecasted to stay true for the rest of the year, assuming that there will not be any short-term fallout from the new global political situation the world unexpectedly finds itself in.
COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute provides expert insights into the worldwide developments of China's outbound tourism market. As Chinese outbound tourists are travelling to a large range of destinations, our publications cover a number of regions, providing detailed insights and analysing visitor behaviour.
With COTRI's insights you can forge a successful business strategy built upon in-depth market expertise, comprehensive qualitative analysis and future projections. The Autumn 2016 Edition of the COTRI Market report features in-depth exploration of the developing trends in the field, supported by a wealth of qualitative and quantitative statistical research.
Source: China Outbound Tourism Research Institute
from China Travel & Tourism News http://ift.tt/1iB6EFm |
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