More than 1,000 flights a day, some 6% of air traffic in east Asia, likely pass through the area, according to data from OAG, a U.K.-based flight-information provider. On Nov. 23, China declared the area to be an air-defense identification zone, or ADIZ—an extra buffer beyond a country's official air space, in which foreign planes may be asked to identify themselves and their flight plans.
China's declaration has already caused a split among the world's carriers over how to respond, since the new ADIZ—which was created over a set of disputed islands—overlaps ADIZ that already exist from Japan and Taiwan, which also claim the territory, as well as South Korea.
Chinese officials say that 55 airlines including those from the U.S. are obeying the new zone rules, which among other things require airlines passing through to file flight plans with China—and face possible military action if they're recalcitrant. But Japanese and South Korean airlines, which operate a major portion of the traffic through the zone—around 500 flights a day—are ignoring the rules.
"Politics is politics. But safety should be placed at the forefront," said Yi Shin-Juang, deputy director of air-traffic services at Taiwan's Civil Aeronautics Administration, explaining its decision to have its airlines obey China's newly imposed rules even as the Taiwanese government raises concerns over the ADIZ.
Adding to the uncertainties, South Korea is considering responding to China's move by extending its own ADIZ to cover a submerged rock both countries claim. Some analysts are asking whether China might extend its ADIZ next into the South China Sea, where it is trying to assert sovereignty over islands that are also claimed by other nations like the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.
"If China opts to repeat the (air-defense zone) fiasco in the South China Sea, this will risk destabilizing the region further," said Daniel Tsang, founder and chief analyst at Aspire Aviation, a Hong Kong-based consultancy. "The last thing airlines want to see at this stage, with the weak and anemic global economic recovery, would be a fray in bilateral ties that would harm business travel and leisure traffic," he added.
Measuring the potential impact is tough. Air travel demand between China and Japan has fallen significantly during the past year and a half, amid territorial friction between the two nations, hurting profits of their key airlines. Japan's big airlines say they haven't yet seen a significant impact from their decision to defy China's new zone rules, although privately, an official from one carrier said the airline is concerned customers may become worried about safety.
The region's airlines have had awkward run-ins with defense zones before. When Taiwan's airlines began flying regularly into mainland China four years ago, routes to the northeastern cities of Qingdao and Dalian took jetliners briefly over Japan's ADIZ, and more than a dozen of those initial flights received emergency radio commands by Japanese authorities to divert, or face the threat of military interception, according to the Taiwan Civil Aeronautics Administration.
Taiwan's aviation regulator said the problem was that its airlines hadn't filed flight plans with Japan, since the routes passed only through Japan's defense zone and not official airspace. Japan asked Taiwan to file the plans, and it has complied ever since—similar to what's happening now with China's ADIZ—the regulator said.
Japan's defense ministry said its air force had scrambled jets eight times during that period to respond to Taiwanese planes, but declined to elaborate. Japan's foreign ministry said the country doesn't scramble for planes that aren't approaching Japan's territorial airspace, and doesn't ask for flight plans when the planes are only flying over Japan's ADIZ, but declined to comment further.
Airlines and analysts say that despite the proliferation of defense zones there is little risk to safety of commercial craft because jetliners are clearly identified and their flight paths easily accessed. The International Air Transport Association, which represents the bulk of the world's carriers, said flight operations have been unaffected, and it hasn't received any reports of problems from member airlines.
Still, some industry watchers warned that tensions could rise, especially if Japan and China drastically increase military activity over the zone. Old-timers point to the 1983 downing of Korean Air Flight 007, which drifted off course into Soviet airspace at the height of the Cold War, and was shot down by a Soviet jet fighter that mistook it for a hostile military craft, killing all 269 people aboard.
Experts say such mistakes are unlikely, given advances in technology, but can't be ruled out.
"It's hard to predict the outcome if confrontations of military jets from both sides take place," said Humphrey Sun, a commercial pilot for China Eastern Airlines Corp. who regularly flies between mainland China and Taiwan. He added that he believes the governments would make flight safety a top priority.
Japan last week raised concerns about ADIZ to the United Nation's International Civil Aviation Organization, saying that if countries unilaterally imposed rules on commercial planes flying through such zones, that could cause confusion and extra paperwork--not to mention worries over possible military enforcement. Japan called for more discussion on ADIZ at the organization's next meetings starting late February.
Source: Wall Street Journal by Jeffrey Ng
from China Travel & Tourism News http://www.chinatraveltourismnews.com/
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